GCC Weekly

The GCC region is navigating conflict-driven shipping disruptions with resilient trade balances as high oil prices offset lower export volumes in Saudi Arabia and Oman. Meanwhile, inflation is rising in the UAE due to supply-chain shocks in food and transport.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Saudi Arabia's trade surplus reached its highest level since October 2022 in March 2026, driven by soaring oil prices that offset a 30% drop in export volumes due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
• 2.Dubai's inflation accelerated to 4.8% in April 2026, primarily driven by spikes in food and transport prices following conflict-related supply disruptions.
• 3.Kuwait recorded a massive 2025 current account surplus of US$35.7bn (22.7% of GDP), though the ongoing conflict is expected to narrow this figure in 2026.

Table of Contents

• Saudi Arabia: High oil prices more than offset low volumes
• Oman: Trade surplus increases ahead of upcoming boost
• Kuwait: Strong CA surplus ahead of the conflict shock
• UAE: Dubai CPI accelerates in line with our expectations

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