Energy Shock Monitor

The J.P. Morgan Energy Shock Monitor tracks the global economic fallout of the Middle East conflict, noting that while fuel prices have risen 30%, vehicle activity and US spending are resilient whereas global flight activity is lagging, especially in Emerging Markets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global flight activity is the most significantly impacted metric, underperforming typical seasonal increases, particularly in Emerging Markets (EM Asia, Latam, and EM Edge).
• 2.Global vehicle activity remains resilient despite the shock, supported by ample gasoline inventories and more modest price increases compared to jet fuel.
• 3.Global retail fuel prices rose 0.4% in the latest week, reaching a cumulative 30% increase since the conflict began, with notable spikes in India and Thailand.

Table of Contents

• Activity tracking
• Flights
• Europe flights
• Asia/Pacific flights
• Latam flights
• EM Edge ex GCC flights
• Light Vehicles and Trucks
• Activity tracking: GDW economies
• Activity tracking: EM Edge economies
• US daily consumer spending: Chase Card Tracker
• Prices
• Exposure metrics
• Energy shock exposure metrics: GDW economies
• Energy shock exposure metrics: EM Edge economies
• Appendix
• Sources and methodology

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