J.P. Morgan's EM FX daily report highlights significant Ruble strength and a cautious stance on EM risk following a US Treasury sell-off. The desk remains long TRY and HUF while monitoring South African CPI and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Russian Ruble (RUB) continues to strengthen significantly, reaching new lows of 71.00 against the USD despite corporate demand for NDFs.
- 2.A sell-off in US Treasuries is weighing on global risk appetite, leading to tactical adjustments in EM FX positions like EUR/HUF and EUR/PLN.
- 3.Maintain long TRY position despite managed depreciation, as a large one-off devaluation is viewed as unlikely due to FX pass-through risks.
Table of Contents
- Sales & Trading
- EM FX Daily Report
- Country Specific Disclosures
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Authors
Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh
Securities
USDRUBUSDZARUSDTRYEURHUFUS Treasuries
Themes
EM FX Resilience vs USD StrengthUS Interest Rate Pressure
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastAfricaRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey