This daily report outlines tactical currency positioning across various emerging markets amidst heightened Middle East geopolitical risk and impending US CPI data. The author maintains a constructive stance on EMFX generally while navigating specific volatility in TRY, PLN, and KZT.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, are driving volatility across various EMFX pairs.
- 2.The firm maintains a long position on Turkish Lira (TRY) citing stable FX policy and lack of near-term political pressure for early elections.
- 3.Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT) experienced sharp volatility following the lifting of emergency FX repatriation measures by the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Table of Contents
- RUB
- ZAR
- TRY
- PLN
- HUF
- CZK
- RON
- ILS
- KZT
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Authors
Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh
Securities
RUB
Themes
Carry TradeGeopolitical RiskMonetary Policy Divergence
Regions
Middle EastEuropeRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey