The report analyzes the impact of geopolitical headlines on EM FX, highlighting tactical long opportunities in TRY and HUF while watching for USDZAR shorts. Significant upward pressure is noted in USD/RUB and USD/KZT due to strong onshore demand and supply constraints.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Russian Ruble (RUB) is under upward pressure due to increased onshore dollar demand and an upcoming FX program expected to purchase $250-300 million extra USD per day.
- 2.The South African Rand (ZAR) is viewed as a primary beneficiary of potential geopolitical resolutions, with the author looking to aggressively sell USDZAR on good news.
- 3.Tactical long positions are being maintained in the Turkish Lira (TRY) as state banks are expected to remain firm in offsetting outflows.
Table of Contents
- EM FX
- TRY
- PLN
- Country Specific Disclosures
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Authors
Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh
Securities
USDRUBUSDZARUSDTRYEURPLNEURHUFUSDKZT
Themes
Geopolitical VolatilityCentral Bank Policy and Intervention
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastAfricaRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey