J.P. Morgan's EM FX daily update highlights a strongly bullish outlook for the Hungarian Forint due to EU fund releases and tactical long positions in the Turkish Lira despite political volatility.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Hungarian Forint (HUF) remains highly bullish following an agreement to unlock over €16bn in EU funds, with targets set for EURHUF at 350.
- 2.Tactical long TRY positions are maintained as the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is expected to prioritize preventing local retail dollarization over offshore outflows.
- 3.The South African Rand (ZAR) is positioned to benefit from any de-escalation in Middle East tensions via improved terms of trade.
Table of Contents
- RUB
- ZAR
- Turkiye
- PLN
- HUF
- Czech
- RON
- Shekel
- Tenge
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Authors
Matt Pheasant
Securities
USDRUBUSDZARUSDTRYEURPLNEURHUFUSDKZT
Themes
EM Central Bank Policy DivergenceImpact of Geopolitical De-escalation on EM FX
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastAfricaRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey