J.P. Morgan's daily EM FX update highlights a tactical stance across multiple pairs, maintaining a long TRY position while moving to the sidelines on USDZAR. The report notes unexpected rate cuts in Hungary and new multi-year lows for USDRUB amid shifting geopolitical signals.
Key Takeaways
- 1.J.P. Morgan remains long TRY, viewing the CBRT's priority as real TRY appreciation to limit retail dollarization despite a faster depreciation pace.
- 2.The NBH unexpectedly cut FX Swap rates by 50bps, weighing on HUF carry and triggering a spike in EURHUF toward 360.
- 3.USDRUB reached a new three-year low of 73.75, though the move is not definitively linked to recent peace 'murmurings' regarding Ukraine.
Table of Contents
- USDRUB commentary
- USDZAR commentary
- TRY Analysis
- EURPLN and HUF
- Central Europe (HUF/CZK)
- Middle East (Shekel/ILS)
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Authors
Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh
Securities
USDRUBUSDZARUSDTRYEURHUFEURPLNEURCZK
Themes
Central Bank Intervention and Policy ShiftsGeopolitical Risk Pass-through
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastAfricaRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey