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J.P. Morgan

July 2, 2026

EM Edge Data Watch

Weekly UpdateFXRates CreditEnergyOther

The report analyzes economic trends across 34 'Edge' economies, noting a dovish shift among central banks due to falling oil prices and stable FX. Key developments include Bolivia's FX unification and income classification upgrades for Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Central banks in EM Edge regions show a dovish bias despite Fed hike risks, supported by lower oil prices and stable FX.
  • 2.Bolivia has unified its FX market and shifted to a more flexible exchange-rate system as a key step in its stabilization program.
  • 3.Sri Lanka and Vietnam have been upgraded by the World Bank to upper-middle-income status based on GNI per capita gains.

Table of Contents

  • Economic outlook summary
  • Quarterly outlook summary
  • Monetary policy forecast
  • EM Edge Economic Calendar
  • Market Watch
  • Armenia: Deficits Persist, but Inflows Do the Work
  • Bahrain: Piecing the BoP puzzle
  • Bolivia: FX unification, a new step toward stabilization
  • Georgia: a solid fortress in the South Caucasus
  • Regional Commentary
  • Asia Edge: Income milestones and inflation surprises
  • GCC
  • Europe Edge
  • Africa Edge
  • Latin America Edge
  • Appendix

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Authors

Nicolae Alexandru-ChidesciucKatherine MarneyJuan Goldin

Securities

Ardshinbank Eurobond

Themes

Disinflationary trendsGeopolitical risk impactStabilization programs

Regions

Asia PacificMiddle EastLatin AmericaBoliviaSri LankaVietnam