China Monthly Data Outlook

China's recovery is currently narrow, driven by high-tech exports and the global AI cycle. Domestic sectors remain weak, making faster fiscal policy execution essential to support growth.

Key Takeaways

• 1.China's economic recovery remains two-speed, supported by exports and high-tech manufacturing, while domestic demand continues to struggle.
• 2.Domestic demand is identified as the binding constraint on growth, with weak retail sales and a continued contraction in real estate investment.
• 3.Fiscal execution is crucial for the second half of 2026; while special local bond issuance has picked up, actual project deployment lags.

Table of Contents

• Production resilient, demand awaits fiscal execution
• Key economic statistics
• China macro indicator heat map
• China activity indicator heat map
• Recent policy measures (June)
• Summary of major economic indicators and forecasts
• Real GDP (2Q)
• Industrial production (June)
• Manufacturing PMI (June)
• Merchandise trade (June)
• Retail sales (June)
• Auto production and sales (June)
• Fixed investment (June)
• Industrial profits (June)
• Labor market and consumer confidence (June)
• Consumer prices (June)
• Producer prices (June)
• House prices (June)
• Housing activities (June)
• Money aggregates (June)
• Aggregate financing (June)
• Interest rates
• Open market operations
• Fiscal position (June)
• Monetary conditions (June)
• Currency exchange rate
• FX reserves (June)
• Manufacturing and industrial activity tracking
• Service sector activity tracking
• Financial markets
• External conditions and balance of payments
• Labor market conditions

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