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J.P. Morgan

May 12, 2026

BoJ Opinions: Getting Closer

Macro ThematicRates Govt BondsMacro Economic IndicatorsCommoditiesEnergy

The J.P. Morgan analysis of BoJ meeting opinions suggests a hawkish shift with a rate hike likely coming in June. The board is prioritizing upside inflation risks and second-round energy effects over growth risks.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) summary of opinions reveals a distinct hawkish bias, shifting focus toward upside inflation risks over growth concerns.
  • 2.Policy normalization is no longer waiting for 'improvements' in economic activity, but merely 'developments,' suggesting a lower bar for rate hikes.
  • 3.J.P. Morgan maintains its forecast for a BoJ rate hike at the upcoming June meeting.

Table of Contents

  • BoJ opinions: Getting closer
  • Economic and Policy Research
  • Other Disclosures
  • Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures

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Authors

Benjamin Shatil

Securities

Japan Policy Interest RateCrude Oil

Themes

Central Bank Policy NormalizationInflation Upside RisksGeopolitical Impact on Markets

Regions

Asia PacificJapan