2026 Mid-Year Outlook

The 2026 Mid-Year Outlook maintains a constructive view on global growth fueled by AI-driven capex, while warning of risks from geopolitical fragmentation and sticky inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global expansion remains on solid footing supported by recovering business sentiment and resilient consumer spending despite geopolitical uncertainties.
• 2.AI-driven capital spending remains a critical structural growth pillar, though US-led concentration risks persist.
• 3.Geopolitical fragmentation is identified as a defining macro uncertainty and a structural source of risk for 2H26.

Table of Contents

• Contributing Authors
• 2026 Mid-Year Outlook
• Cross-Asset Strategy
• Economics
• Equity Strategy
• Rates
• Credit
• Securitized Products
• Emerging Markets
• FX
• Commodities
• Related Research

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