UK Labour Market Still Weak

UK labour market data indicates continued weakness, with falling payrolls and private sector pay deceleration. Berenberg expects the Bank of England to cut rates by year-end to address labour market slack.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UK labour market conditions remain weak despite recent revisions, with payrolls trending down and vacancies at a five-year low.
• 2.Private sector pay growth is decelerating, masked by public sector wage increases, suggesting further slack in the labour market.
• 3.Expectation for the Bank of England to prioritize labour market weakness by lowering interest rates before the end of the year.

Table of Contents

• UK LABOUR MARKET: STILL WEAK
• Berenberg Macro View
• Selected labour market indicators
• Employment is flat at best
• Large public sector pay rises obscure private sector deceleration
• Disclaimer
• Remarks regarding foreign investors
• United Kingdom
• United States of America
• Copyright

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