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ING Bank N.V.

July 8, 2026

FX Daily

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The market focus turns to the Fed's June meeting minutes, which are expected to bolster a hawkish outlook and support the USD. Meanwhile, the RBNZ delivered a hawkish rate hike, and the NBP remains under scrutiny as the Polish zloty faces downward pressure.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The upcoming FOMC minutes are expected to reinforce a hawkish message, providing a floor for the US dollar.
  • 2.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked rates to 2.50% and signaled potential for further tightening.
  • 3.The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to hold rates, with the zloty under pressure due to dovish outlooks relative to peers.

Table of Contents

  • USD: FOMC minutes to strengthen hawkish message
  • EUR: Still quite relaxed about France
  • NZD: RBNZ hikes and prepares to do more
  • PLN: NBP dovishness keeps pressure on zloty

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Authors

Francesco PesoleFrantisek TaborskyChris Turner

Securities

DXYOATs

Themes

Geopolitical RiskHawkish Central Bank PolicySafe-haven Demand

Regions

Asia PacificEuropeMiddle EastUnited StatesIranNew Zealand