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ING Bank N.V.

June 5, 2026

FX Daily

Daily UpdateFXCommoditiesRates Govt BondsEnergy

The US dollar is currently restricted from breaking higher due to suppressed oil price volatility. Investors are closely watching the US May jobs report for catalysts to further hawkish Fed rate hike expectations.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Limited oil price volatility is preventing a USD breakout despite a strong macro backdrop.
  • 2.US May payrolls report is expected to be a catalyst for further hawkish Fed repricing.
  • 3.EUR/USD risks remain skewed to the downside below 1.160 until the upcoming ECB meeting.

Table of Contents

  • FX Daily: Subdued oil volatility preventing USD breakout
  • USD: Payrolls should remain USD supportive
  • EUR: Risks remain on the downside
  • CAD: Hoping for some stabilisation in jobs
  • CEE: June CNB meeting set to be lively amid rate hike potential

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Authors

Francesco PesoleFrantisek Taborsky

Securities

Brent Crude

Themes

Geopolitical risk influence on currency and commodity marketsFed rate hike repricing

Regions

Middle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranCanada