Eurozone Inflation Briefing

Eurozone inflation remains a complex story of rising core pressures contrasted by falling energy futures. HSBC has lowered its 2026 inflation forecasts following a geopolitical deal involving the US and Iran.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Headline eurozone inflation reached 3.2% in May, but the core rate rose to 2.6%, suggesting broadening price pressures.
• 2.The US-Iran deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp fall in oil futures, leading to a downward revision of 2026 inflation forecasts.
• 3.Despite energy price volatility, core inflation in France and Germany remains sensitive to services costs, specifically transport and leisure.

Table of Contents

• Eurozone inflation briefing
• Disclosures & Disclaimer
• France: Easing energy pressures
• Germany: Temporary relief?
• Inflation momentum
• Heatmap: Eurozone inflation drivers
• HSBC eurozone inflation forecasts
• HSBC France inflation forecasts
• HSBC Germany inflation forecasts
• Disclosure appendix
• Additional disclosures
• Disclaimer

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