Report published May 18, 2026
Currency Outlook: HSBC Global Investment Research - May 2026
HSBC Global Investment Research · May 18, 2026
HSBC's May 2026 outlook suggests the USD is range-bound in a 'soft orbit' as geopolitical drivers yield to central bank policy. Key highlights include Japanese JPY intervention and a growing divide in the stablecoin market between regulated institutional assets and crypto-native tokens.
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Finvaulta summarizes HSBC Global Investment Research's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The broad USD is expected to remain in a 'soft orbit' as central bank fundamentals regain importance over waning geopolitical tensions.
- 2.Japanese authorities likely intervened in the FX market between April 30 and May 6, selling an estimated USD 65bn to defend the 160 level in USD-JPY.
- 3.Stablecoins are undergoing functional differentiation; the market is pivoting from regulatory status alone to factors like reserve quality and 'moneyness'.
Table of Contents
- FX: Key trade themes
- At a Glance
- Overview: Stuck
- GBP: Testing the line
- JPY: Intervention questions
- CAD and oil
- Not all stablecoins are created equal
- Silver: After the gold rush
- What drove the FX market...
- Exchange Rates vs USD
- G10 Exchange Rates
- Asia Exchange Rates
- CEEMEA Exchange Rates
- LatAm Exchange Rates
Report data
A reversal of fortune across FX from March to the opposite starting in April
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Price Forecast (Average) | 75.00 USD/oz | Raised forecasts due to earlier supply tightness and gold rush. |
| USD-JPY Intervention Estimate | 65 USD billion | Combined estimated intervention across multiple rounds. |
| China Current Account Surplus Revision (Russia) | 72 USD billion | Central Bank of Russia revised its projection based on energy prices. |
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