Fast Comment Norway

Handelsbanken has revised its Norway outlook, removing expectations for rate cuts and raising the 10-year swap rate forecast to 4.30% following an inflation shock. Core inflation reached 3.4% in January, well above central bank projections, signaling persistent price pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Norges Bank's rate cuts are now considered 'off the table' following an inflation shock.
• 2.The 10-year swap rate forecast is increased to 4.30 percent.
• 3.The EUR/NOK pair is projected to trade near 11.20 over the next 3–6 months.

Table of Contents

• Fast Comment Norway
• Key policy rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.00% for the foreseeable future
• Core inflation, different measures
• CPI-ATE, with and without rental prices
• Annual wage growth
• Mainland Norway, labour productivity*
• Labour income share, manufacturing
• Norges Bank's assessment of the neutral rate
• Expectations for Norges Bank's key policy rate path
• Research disclaimers

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