York Space Systems (YSS): Incremental Uncertainty in the Revenue Growth Trajectory

York Space Systems reported a 1Q26 revenue beat but an EBITDA miss, while reiterating full-year guidance despite forecasting a flat 2Q26. Goldman Sachs remains Neutral with a lowered $28 price target due to increased uncertainty in the back-half growth ramp.

Key Takeaways

• 1.YSS reported 1Q26 revenue of $116.3mn, which beat both consensus and Goldman Sachs estimates, but Adjusted EBITDA came in lower than expected.
• 2.Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance but forecasted flat year-over-year growth for 2Q26, creating uncertainty about the required second-half ramp.
• 3.Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating and lowered the 12-month price target from $31 to $28.

Table of Contents

• Our view on the stock post 1Q26 earnings
• Key elements of the quarter
• Ratios & Valuation
• Growth & Margins (%)
• Price Performance
• Income Statement ($ mn)
• Balance Sheet ($ mn)
• Cash Flow ($ mn)
• Exhibit 1: YSS 1Q26 results vs. GS estimates
• Revenue
• Adjusted EBITDA
• Backlog
• Balance sheet and cash flow
• Guidance
• Price target methodology and risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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