Will AI Capex Spending Boost US GDP

While AI capex is forecast to hit $800 billion by year-end 2026, its impact on U.S. GDP will be limited to 0.1% due to high imports of foreign hardware. Goldman Sachs forecasts overall capex growth of 7.8% for the year, supported by AI demand and new tax incentives.

Key Takeaways

• 1.AI-related capital expenditure is expected to reach $800 billion by the end of 2026, significantly driving U.S. capex growth.
• 2.Despite the massive nominal outlay, the contribution to measured U.S. GDP growth is estimated at only 0.1% due to import leakage.
• 3.New tax provisions (OBBBA) are expected to boost capex growth by approximately 3 percentage points in 2026.

Table of Contents

• Equipment
• Structures
• Software
• R&D
• Scenario Analysis
• Tax Incentives and OBBBA
• Policy Headwinds and 2026 Forecast

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