What's Top of Mind in Macro Research

Goldman Sachs projects a more hawkish path for the Fed, delaying rate cuts to late 2027, while maintaining an optimistic outlook for the AI-driven equity bull market. Simultaneously, the firm expects persistent oil supply disruptions from the Iran conflict to last into late August.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Fed is expected to delay final rate cuts to June and December 2027 due to resilient employment data.
• 2.The AI bull market is believed to have not yet peaked, supported by positive earnings revisions.
• 3.Iran-related oil supply disruption expected to last longer, with Persian Gulf exports normalizing by late August.

Table of Contents

• Central banks: a longer Fed hold, and ECB and BoJ hikes
• AI bull market: not the peak
• Iran conflict: an even longer disruption
• What else is on our radar?
• Relevant research
• Macro at a glance
• Key GS economic and market forecasts
• More from TOP of MIND
• Disclosure Appendix