What Matters Today: CTAs, Pensions, Software Rally, and Potential Growth

The report highlights a large $25bn equity sell-off expected from US pensions for month-end rebalancing and analyzes the creation of 'ex-AI' baskets to isolate macro growth sensitivities. It also notes a deceleration in US potential growth to 2.3% for 2025 due to cooling labor force expansion.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US pensions are expected to sell a significant $25bn of US equities for month-end rebalancing, ranking in the 83rd percentile of absolute dollar value over three years.
• 2.CTA demand for S&P 500 futures has diminished after substantial buying over the last month, with positioning currently at $32.9bn against a $48.9bn historic max.
• 3.Goldman Sachs has introduced a 'Small Cap ex AI' basket (GSXUR2XX) to help investors hedge against growth slowdowns without losing exposure to the AI narrative.

Table of Contents

• CTAs are Small Buyers While Pensions are Large Sellers
• What if Growth Slows?
• Software Rally
• Where Does Potential Growth Stand?
• Notice to Australian Investors
• Additional Disclaimers

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial