Vonovia Clear Deleveraging Trajectory and 2028 Ambitions

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy (on CL) rating for Vonovia with a €31.80 price target, highlighting strong organic rental growth and a manageable deleveraging path towards its 2028 goals.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Vonovia's organic rental growth is trending higher than guidance, supported by c.3% irrevocable rent increases and significant modernization impact.
• 2.Non-rental EBITDA is set to become a major growth driver, specifically the energy business which is projected to contribute over €100mn by 2028.
• 3.The company's balance sheet deleveraging is on track, with LTV expected to reach the 40-45% guidance range by FY27 through organic growth and mid-single-digit billion disposals.

Table of Contents

• Estimate changes and GSe vs consensus
• Our Buy thesis
• Upside from business optimisation through AI
• Discounted valuation
• Summary forecasts
• Key risks to our thesis

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