US Weekly Kickstart Evaluating Exuberance

The S&P 500 has experienced a sharp rally recently, leading to investor anxiety. Goldman Sachs analysis suggests that while exuberance metrics are elevated, they remain below levels seen in 2000 or 2021 and are supported by robust earnings growth.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Recent market exuberance registers above historical averages but below levels seen in 2000 and 2021.
• 2.The recent market rally has been primarily driven by surging near-term earnings estimates, unlike prior speculative bubbles.
• 3.Fundamental indicators typically associated with bubble peaks (deteriorating growth, extreme issuance) are largely absent.

Table of Contents

• Gauging equity market exuberance
• Share price action
• Trading activity
• Investor sentiment
• Corporate sentiment
• S&P 500 earnings and return forecasts
• Biggest stock movers this week
• YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns
• Sentiment and flows
• Economic growth
• Interest rates and financial conditions
• Market breadth and concentration
• Correlation and volatility
• IPO Barometer and mutual fund performance
• Earnings growth
• Valuations
• Sector returns, earnings, and valuations
• Thematic baskets
• Factors
• Goldman Sachs global macro research cross-asset forecasts