US Weekly Kickstart Evaluating Exuberance

The S&P 500 has experienced a sharp rally driven by AI-related momentum and strong earnings revisions. While exuberance indicators are elevated, they remain below historical bubble levels, and core fundamentals suggest continued upside.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Recent market exuberance indicators rank in the 86th percentile since 1995, above average but below peaks seen in 2000 and 2021.
• 2.Fundamental drivers of past market peaks (disappointing growth, extremely elevated issuance, tightening Fed policy) are generally absent today.
• 3.The recent rally is largely supported by positive earnings revisions rather than just speculative momentum.

Table of Contents

• Gauging equity market exuberance
• Share price action
• Trading activity
• Investor sentiment
• Corporate sentiment
• S&P 500 earnings and return forecasts
• Biggest stock movers this week
• YTD absolute and risk-adjusted returns
• Sentiment and flows
• Economic growth
• Interest rates and financial conditions
• Market breadth and concentration
• Correlation and volatility
• IPO Barometer and mutual fund performance
• Earnings growth
• Valuations
• Sector returns, earnings, and valuations
• Thematic baskets
• Factors
• Goldman Sachs global macro research cross-asset forecasts