US Homebuyers Not to Expect a Canadian Style Drop in Housing

Goldman Sachs argues that the US housing market will not experience a 20% price drop like Canada's due to more favorable mortgage structures and tighter supply.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A Canadian-style housing price correction of 20% is unlikely in the US due to structural market differences.
• 2.Mortgage reset risk is the primary driver for Canada's downturn, with 60% of Canadian mortgages renewing in 2026 compared to 60% of US mortgages being locked in below 4% fixed rates.
• 3.Housing supply in Canada is significantly more elevated than in the US, with Canadian housing starts 24% above 2019 levels compared to just 8% in the US.

Table of Contents

• U.S. home sales remain muted.

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