US Equity Views: Earnings Growth Paves a Bumpy Path to Higher Returns

Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 target to 8000, citing robust Q1 earnings and powerful tailwinds from AI infrastructure spending despite flat valuation multiples. The report emphasizes that while tactical risks exist, earnings growth remains the primary engine for further market upside.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 year-end 2026 price target to 8000 from 7600, driven by higher earnings expectations.
• 2.Earnings growth for 2026 is forecast at +24% ($340 EPS), with AI infrastructure investment contributing roughly half of this growth.
• 3.Valuation multiples are expected to remain flat at roughly 21x forward EPS due to macroeconomic uncertainty and decelerating growth.

Table of Contents

• Raising our S&P 500 earnings and return forecasts
• Insensitive Portfolio
• S&P 500 earnings
• Equity valuations
• Disclosure Appendix

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