US Consumer Dashboard

The GS US Consumer Dashboard highlights a cooling outlook for 2026, where resilient current spending is expected to give way to significant headwinds from inflation, energy prices, and record-low consumer confidence. Analysts forecast real spending growth will slow to 1.5% in 2026 as temporary tax benefits fade.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Real consumer spending has been resilient (2.1% PCE growth), but is expected to slow in 2026H2 due to high inflation and the fading boost from OBBBA tax cuts.
• 2.Consumer sentiment has reached record lows, with the UMich index falling to 44.8, its lowest level on record.
• 3.The labor market is currently stable (+115k jobs in April), but growth headwinds from the war in Iran are expected to slow job growth and push unemployment to 4.6% by end-2026.

Table of Contents

• Spending
• Employment
• Income
• Wealth/Balance Sheets
• Debt
• Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
• The US Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix

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