Upstart Holdings: Recent Selloff, Better 2026 Guide, and More Capital Partners

Goldman Sachs upgrades Upstart to Neutral from Sell, noting that the market has now priced in anticipated margin compression and slower volumes. While near-term volume tailwinds exist due to new funding partners and better macro indicators, long-term growth targets remain difficult to underwrite.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs upgraded Upstart (UPST) from Sell to Neutral following 4Q25 results and significant stock underperformance.
• 2.Management provided an ambitious 2025-2028 medium-term outlook including a 35% revenue CAGR.
• 3.The proprietary Upstart Macro Index (UMI) closed the year at multi-month lows, which is expected to support near-term origination volumes.

Table of Contents

• Bottom Line
• 4Q25 Results
• Guidance
• Valuation Methodology
• Key upside risks
• Key downside risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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