Updating Estimates Post Q1 26

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on UBS Group after Q1'26 results beat profit consensus by 31%, leading to a raised 2026 buyback target of $4bn and a revised price target of SFr38.50.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UBS's Q1'26 results significantly exceeded expectations, with net profit beating company consensus by 31% due to strong revenue in Investment Banking and Wealth Management.
• 2.Goldman Sachs increased its 2026E share buyback estimate from $3bn to $4bn following the strong quarterly performance.
• 3.New Swiss ordinance changes present a lower capital headwind than previously estimated ($4bn net vs $11bn prior forecast).

Table of Contents

• UBS Group (UBSG.S)
• Ratios & Valuation
• Growth & Margins (%)
• Price Performance
• Income Statement ($ mn)
• Balance Sheet ($ mn)
• Exhibit 2: UBS estimate changes
• Investment Thesis and Key Risks
• Disclosure Appendix
• Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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