Turkiye: US$7.6bn Rise in FX Assets and Stable Loan Growth

TCMB FX assets rose by $7.6bn in the week ending May 13, 2026, as the central bank rebuilt buffers despite $17bn in foreign outflows since the Iran war began. While commercial loan rates have increased to 55.4%, credit expansion remains resilient and requires further cooling to protect the current account.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Central Bank of Turkiye (TCMB) saw a US$7.6bn increase in FX assets as of May 13, 2026, driven largely by net FX purchases and increased bank deposits.
• 2.Foreign capital outflows since the start of the Iran war are estimated at US$17bn, primarily exiting local debt instruments.
• 3.Commercial loan rates have risen significantly to 55.4% following the policy rate hike, yet credit expansion has not yet slowed sufficiently.

Table of Contents

• Turkiye: US$7.6bn Rise in FX Assets and Stable Loan Growth
• Exhibit 1: Breakdown TCMB's reserves
• Exhibit 2: TCMB's gross FX assets and FX liquidity
• Exhibit 3: Breakdown of TCMB's FX assets into liquid FX assets, gold, SDR, non-SDR FX assets, sell-side swaps
• Exhibit 4: Breakdown of the TCMB's FX liabilities into liabilities to nonresidents, domestic banks and the non-bank sector (mostly the government)
• Exhibit 5: Valuation adjusted cumulative changes in FX deposits (excluding gold) and in gold deposits
• Exhibit 6: Stock of TRY-settled FX futures/forwards (domestic NDFs)
• Exhibit 7: Banks' off-balance-sheet FX position
• Exhibit 8: Cumulative foreign inflows into equity and domestic debt
• Exhibit 9: Weighted average TRY deposit rates, policy rate and deviation of TRY deposit rates from the policy rate
• Exhibit 10: Weighted average consumer loan rates, policy rate and deviation of consumer loan rates from the policy rate
• Exhibit 11: Weighted average commercial loan rates, policy rate and deviation of commercial loan rates from the policy rate
• Exhibit 12: Total TCMB funding via traditional quotation, buy-side swap funding, and sterilisation by sell-side gold swaps
• Exhibit 13: 3-month moving average annualised monthly TRY and FX loan growth
• Disclosure Appendix

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