This report provides updated model-implied probabilities for the 2026 World Cup knock-out stage following Spain's victory over Belgium. France currently leads the winning probability estimates at 34.6%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Spain advanced to the semi-finals after a 2-1 victory over Belgium.
- 2.France remains the team with the highest probability of winning the World Cup at 34.6%.
Table of Contents
- Exhibit 1: Today's Game
- Exhibit 2: The Development of the Knock-Out Phase
- Exhibit 3: France Still Ahead
- Exhibit 4: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Jan HatziusGiovanni PierdomenicoSven Jari Stehn
Themes
Predictive ModelingSports Economics
Regions
GlobalSpainBelgiumFrance