The World Cup and Economics

Goldman Sachs economists utilize a proprietary model to forecast 2026 World Cup outcomes. The report highlights Team USA's successful debut and identifies Spain as the tournament favorite.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Team USA achieved a 4-1 victory over Paraguay in the opening match, significantly boosting their Elo rating and group stage outlook.
• 2.Model predictions identify Spain as the tournament favorite based on 50,000 simulations.

Table of Contents

• The World Cup and Economics
• California Dreaming
• Exhibit 1: Most Likely Predicted Group Stage Results
• Exhibit 2: The Predicted Group Standings
• Exhibit 3: The Road to the Final
• Exhibit 4: Spain Still the Favourite, According to Our Model
• Exhibit 5: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
• Disclosure Appendix

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