The State of the Consumer in Charts

This report provides a monthly chart-based analysis of the Latin American consumer sector, highlighting divergent macro trends across Brazil, Mexico, and the Andean region. It includes model updates and target price revisions for key retailers following 1Q26 results.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Brazil's consumer environment remains sideways with slightly weakened purchasing power as the spread between wage growth and food inflation compressed.
• 2.Mexico showed marginal improvement in retail growth, primarily driven by department stores, while remittance flows remain under pressure due to Peso strength.
• 3.Colombia is an outlier in the region, exhibiting strong real retail sales, wage growth, and rising consumer confidence.

Table of Contents

• Brazil - Macro Backdrop
• Brazil - Consumer Industry Trends (1)
• Brazil - Consumer Industry Trends (2)
• Brazil - Consumer Industry Trends (3)
• Mexico - Macro Backdrop
• Mexico - Consumer Industry Trends (1)
• Mexico - Consumer Industry Trends (2)
• Mexico - Consumer Industry Trends (3)
• Argentina - Macro Backdrop
• Chile - Macro Backdrop
• Colombia - Macro Backdrop
• Peru - Macro Backdrop
• FX Rates - Local vs. USD
• Commodity Prices
• Valuation, Performance & Macro
• Estimate changes (LatAm Retail)
• Disclosure Appendix

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