The Obesity Evolution: Refining Our Global Anti-Obesity Medication Market Model

Goldman Sachs has updated its 2030 Global Anti-Obesity Medication (AOM) market forecast to $114bn, driven by higher-than-expected adoption of oral medications and stronger international (OUS) sales growth. The firm anticipates a more balanced market share shift toward oral treatments, which are expected to command a larger portion of the total market.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Raised 2030 Global Anti-Obesity Medication (AOM) TAM forecast to $114bn from $101bn.
• 2.Shift in market dynamics toward oral medications, now expected to reach 40% of the 2030 global revenue TAM.
• 3.Increased expectation for OUS (outside US) market penetration, forecasting 2030 total OUS obesity sales of $48bn vs. $39bn previously.

Table of Contents

• GS Obesity Market Model Update: What’s Changed?
• GS Obesity Model Update: Duopoly Dominates
• GS Obesity Model Update: Mix Shift Toward Orals
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: Expanding the AOM Market
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: Monitoring the Launches
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: NBRx a Key Leading Indicator
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: Balancing Share Split Within Orals
• US Obesity Market: Medicare Channel Unlock Ahead
• GS Obesity Model Update: Increasing OUS Penetration
• OUS Obesity Market Momentum: Underappreciated Runway
• OUS Obesity Market Trends: Brazil
• OUS Obesity Market Trends: India
• OUS Obesity Market Trends: China
• GS Obesity Model Update: Reflecting Lower Pricing Assumptions
• Appendices