The Obesity Evolution: Pill Positioning Enhances Wegovy Competitiveness

Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for Novo Nordisk to DKK 305 following the exceptionally strong launch of the Wegovy pill, which is driving a major shift in the obesity market toward oral treatments. While long-term revenue estimates for the pill have doubled, the firm maintains a Neutral rating due to upcoming competition and reimbursement uncertainties.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Wegovy pill launch has been exceptionally strong, reaching 1.3m total prescriptions in its first quarter and capturing a leading 31% share of New to Brand Prescriptions (NBRx).
• 2.GS has fundamentally revised its obesity market model, shifting the expected injectable vs. oral split from 70/30 to 50/50 by 2030.
• 3.Peak sales estimates for the Wegovy pill have been more than doubled to DKK 110bn (~$17bn), significantly above Visible Alpha consensus of DKK 56bn.

Table of Contents

• TRx continues to trend positively, NBRx share suggests upside for the Wegovy family
• Wegovy pill launch continues to show strong momentum, with NBRx data suggesting oral therapies could be >50% of the obesity market in the years to come
• Patients appear to be spending more time on the 4mg dose, gradually building exposure to the drug
• Wegovy NBRx share has been above Zepbound/ the Lilly portfolio for the past 12 weeks
• BrandImpact data supports Wegovy pill uptake
• Given trajectories, relative profiles and consumerisation, we shift our Obesity sales toward the Wegovy pill
• Forecast changes and valuation
• Valuation and Risks

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