The Obesity Evolution: Global Anti-Obesity Medication Market Model Update

Goldman Sachs raised its 2030 global anti-obesity medication market forecast to $114bn, driven by stronger-than-expected adoption of oral pills and international market growth. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are projected to maintain an 82% market duopoly.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 2030 Global Anti-Obesity Medication (AOM) Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast is raised to $114bn from the previous $101bn.
• 2.Oral obesity medications are expected to capture a larger share of the market, representing 40% ($46bn) of the 2030 global revenue TAM.
• 3.Increased Outside-of-US (OUS) penetration, particularly in markets like Brazil, India, and China, is a key driver for the TAM increase, with OUS sales reaching $48bn by 2030.

Table of Contents

• GS Obesity Market Model Update: What’s Changed?
• GS Obesity Model Update: Duopoly Dominates
• GS Obesity Model Update: Mix Shift Toward Orals
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: Expanding the AOM Market
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: Monitoring the Launches
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: NBRx a Key Leading Indicator
• Oral Obesity Pill Momentum: Balancing Share Split Within Orals
• US Obesity Market: Medicare Channel Unlock Ahead
• GS Obesity Model Update: Increasing OUS Penetration
• OUS Obesity Market Momentum: Underappreciated Runway
• OUS Obesity Market Trends: Brazil
• OUS Obesity Market Trends: India
• OUS Obesity Market Trends: China
• GS Obesity Model Update: Reflecting Lower Pricing Assumptions
• Appendices