South Bow Corp 1Q26 Recap Incremental Support for Prairie Connector

South Bow Corp reported 1Q26 EBITDA of $257m, meeting expectations and maintaining FY26 guidance. Goldman Sachs reiterated its Sell rating, citing valuation constraints despite regulatory progress on the Prairie Connector project.

Key Takeaways

• 1.1Q26 Results were largely in line with expectations, with adjusted EBITDA of $257m slightly beating estimates due to strong Marketing margins.
• 2.The Prairie Connector project received a key presidential permit for cross-border facilities, though significant hurdles remain regarding project structure and final investment decisions.
• 3.South Bow's Blackrod Connection Project is now in commercial service, with cash flows expected to ramp through late 2026.

Table of Contents

• Key Takeaways
• Increased confidence on pressure restriction lifting process beginning in 2H26
• Updating Estimates
• Valuation and Risks
• Disclosure Appendix

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