Goldman Sachs
May 19, 2026
Sensitivity, Semiconductor Risks, and Supply
Market ReportEquitiesRates Govt BondsCommoditiesInformation TechnologyEnergy
The report highlights a cooling in the semiconductor 'gamma chase' and rising volatility driven by massive bond and IPO supply. While oil risks have temporarily eased, the narrative is shifting toward the macro impact of financing AI capex and fiscal deficits.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The semiconductor and AI 'gamma chase' is showing signs of cooling as leverage and retail inflows reach extreme levels.
- 2.Massive bond supply from government deficits and corporate IG issuance for AI capex (forecasted up to $2 trillion) is pressuring rates.
- 3.Geopolitical risk in oil is subsiding as kinetic action in Iran is avoided, though the Strait remains a key pressure point.
Table of Contents
- Oil Sensitivity
- Semis
- Technicals
- Risk
- side-note
- Answers to 7 common client questions on potential impending mega IPOs
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Authors
Rich Privorotsky
Securities
SPXNDXNVDAGOOGHDSX5EXAU
Themes
AI Capex Funding CrisisAbsorption of Liquidity by SupplySemiconductor Gamma De-leveraging
Regions
North AmericaMiddle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranJapan