Secular Stagnation This Is Not

Goldman Sachs' Tony Pasquariello argues that while market intensity and AI-driven rallies are extreme, the market has not yet hit peak speculative euphoria. He highlights divergent performances across global regions, with US and Asia leading while Europe remains bogged down by energy and rate pressures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global AI momentum remains the dominant market driver, with semiconductors and Korean equities showing extreme performance gains.
• 2.Despite rapid gains in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nikkei, current speculative length (+7) is still below 2021 peak levels (+10), suggesting euphoria is not yet full-blown.
• 3.European equity performance is heavily constrained by energy costs (TTF gas) and interest rates, diverging from the AI-driven rallies in the US and Asia.

Table of Contents

• Europe
• US
• One chart for the road

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