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Goldman Sachs

May 10, 2026

Republic Services 1Q Beat on Solid Waste Margin Execution

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Republic Services (RSG) reported a 1Q EBITDA beat of 1.6% and introduced a $100 million AI-driven EBITDA target by 2028. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and a $255 price target.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.RSG delivered a 1Q EBITDA beat, 1.6% above consensus, driven by strong margin execution in the Solid Waste segment.
  • 2.Management introduced a new target for AI/digital initiatives to deliver $100 million in run-rate incremental EBITDA by 2028.
  • 3.Underlying organic volume growth was better than expected at 1.5% vs. the 1% estimate, with emerging signs of volume momentum.

Table of Contents

  • Strong underlying margin expansion
  • Volumes tracking better than our estimates
  • Environmental Solutions organic growth
  • RNG ramp update
  • M&A update
  • Digital investments expected to deliver at least $100 mn of annual benefit by 2028
  • Additional takeaways
  • Organic growth
  • Volumes
  • Valuation and Risks
  • 2026-2028 Variance
  • Disclosure Appendix

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Authors

Adam Bubes, CFAAnuj Khandelwal

Securities

RSG

Themes

AI/Digital TransformationMargin ExpansionM&A ActivityRenewable Natural Gas (RNG)

Regions

North AmericaUnited States