Reducing Our Price Forecast on Deal to Reopen Hormuz

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 and 2027 oil price forecasts following an anticipated normalization of Persian Gulf exports due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this adjustment, the firm maintains that risks to their price outlook remain two-sided with net upside.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs reduced its 2026Q4 Brent oil price forecast to $80 from $90 and its 2027 average forecast to $75 from $80.
• 2.The price forecast cut follows the announcement of an interim deal to lift the US blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• 3.The bank assumes Persian Gulf exports will normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, accelerating previous expectations.

Table of Contents

• Oil Analyst
• Reducing Our Price Forecast on Deal to Reopen Hormuz
• Risks around Mideast supply
• Resilient 2027 prices vs. large surplus
• Two-sided but still net upside price risks
• Appendix
• Disclosure Appendix

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