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Goldman Sachs

May 14, 2026

Oil Tracker: US Gasoline Market Tightening

Market ReportCommoditiesEquitiesEnergy

The report highlights a tightening US gasoline market with inventories 5% below median and a 95% drop in Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Despite regional supply hits, the IEA estimates a global April deficit of 5.3mb/d, suggesting a slightly less severe global imbalance than previously feared.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The US gasoline market has reached extreme tightness, with inventories 5% below historical seasonal medians and prices nearing all-time highs.
  • 2.Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed by approximately 95% due to ongoing regional conflict.
  • 3.The IEA estimates an April deficit of 5.3mb/d, which is lower than Goldman Sachs' previous estimates, partly due to demand downgrades.

Table of Contents

  • Persian Gulf Exports
  • Inventories
  • Refining
  • Energy Prices
  • Demand

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Authors

Alexandra PaulusDaan StruyvenYulia Zhestkova GrigsbyFilippo Cuscito

Securities

Brent CrudeWTI CrudeXOMCVXCOP

Themes

Refined Product TightnessGeopolitical Supply DisruptionsInventory Draws

Regions

North AmericaAsia PacificMiddle EastUnited StatesChinaJapan