Oil Comment: Estimating Large Demand Destruction

Goldman Sachs estimates 4-5mb/d of global oil demand destruction in April 2026, stemming from the 'Hormuz shock'. This assessment is supported by analysis of refinery runs, high-frequency retail fuel data, and external forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global oil demand destruction is estimated at 4-5mb/d in April, driven by the Hormuz shock.
• 2.Three independent approaches (Refinery runs, high-frequency data, and external forecasters) converge on the 4-5mb/d estimate.

Table of Contents

• Oil Comment: Estimating Large Demand Destruction
• Approach 1: Using Refinery Runs and Product Stocks
• Approach 2: High Frequency Demand Data
• Approach 3: Wisdom of the Crowds
• Appendix Charts
• Disclosure Appendix