New Zealand Budget 2026: Little Near-Term Change

New Zealand’s 2026 Budget signals a return to fiscal surplus by 2029 despite a soft near-term macro outlook impacted by Middle East tensions. Goldman Sachs maintains its view that the RBNZ will hike rates twice more in mid-2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.New Zealand's 2026 Budget projects a return to a fiscal surplus by FY2029 (0.5% of GDP), the first in a decade.
• 2.Near-term fiscal outlook remains steady with deficits of 2.6% and 2.4% of GDP projected for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively.
• 3.The RBNZ is expected to deliver 25bp rate hikes in July and August 2026, reaching 2.75%.

Table of Contents

• Bottom line
• Main points
• Disclosure Appendix

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