Mosaic Q1 Results and Phosphate Production Curtailments

Mosaic reported Q1 EBITDA of $416mn, matching consensus, but announced phosphate production curtailments at two sites due to high raw material costs. Consequently, the company withdrew its FY26 phosphate production guidance and issued lower-than-expected Q2 volume targets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Mosaic's Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $416mn was essentially in line with the Bloomberg consensus of $418mn.
• 2.The company is partially curtailing phosphate production at Louisiana and Bartow and withdrawing FY26 phosphate production guidance due to high raw material costs.
• 3.Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating but expects near-term share underperformance following lower volume guidance for Q2 and production headwinds.

Table of Contents

• Results
• Guidance
• Our Take
• Valuation and Key Risks
• Disclosure Appendix
• GS Factor Profile
• M&A Rank
• Quantum
• Disclosures
• Company-specific regulatory disclosures
• Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
• Price target and rating history chart(s)
• Target price history table(s)
• Regulatory disclosures

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