Report published May 21, 2026
Morning Market Update: RBA Call Change, FOMC Minutes, and FX Strategy (May 21, 2026)
Goldman Sachs · May 21, 2026
Goldman Sachs analysts have shifted their RBA hike forecast to August following weak Australian employment data, while noting that FOMC minutes reinforce a 'higher-for-longer' rate stance in the US.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The RBA is now expected to deliver a final 25bp rate hike in August rather than June, following a surprise rise in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.5%.
- 2.FOMC minutes indicate that officials are prepared to keep interest rates steady for longer than previously anticipated due to persistent inflation.
- 3.The Norwegian Krone (NOK) remains significantly undervalued and acts as a preeminent energy haven, though its upside is capped by European cyclical conditions.
Table of Contents
- 1) ASIA ECON (BOAK) – Surprise Rise in Australia Unemployment Rate and RBA Call Change
- 2) US ECON (MERICLE) – FOMC Minutes
- 3) HUF Update
- 4) FX Trader Call Takeaways
- 5) FX STRATEGY (JENKINS) – The NOK Oil Proposition
Report data
Long NOK/SEK Has Been On Par With Long July Brent for Vol-Adjusted Returns in the Energy Shock
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Australia Unemployment Rate | 4.5% | Surprised upside compared to consensus of 4.3%. |
| RBA Rate Hike Forecast | 4.60% | Forecast pushed back from June to August. |
| HUF Front-end Funding Rates | 6-6.5% | Reflects shift in balances between locals and internationals. |
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Morning Market Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on May 21, 2026.
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