Morning Market Update: RBA Call Change, FOMC Minutes, and FX Strategy

Goldman Sachs analysts have shifted their RBA hike forecast to August following weak Australian employment data, while noting that FOMC minutes reinforce a 'higher-for-longer' rate stance in the US.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The RBA is now expected to deliver a final 25bp rate hike in August rather than June, following a surprise rise in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.5%.
• 2.FOMC minutes indicate that officials are prepared to keep interest rates steady for longer than previously anticipated due to persistent inflation.
• 3.The Norwegian Krone (NOK) remains significantly undervalued and acts as a preeminent energy haven, though its upside is capped by European cyclical conditions.

Table of Contents

• 1) ASIA ECON (BOAK) – Surprise Rise in Australia Unemployment Rate and RBA Call Change
• 2) US ECON (MERICLE) – FOMC Minutes
• 3) HUF Update
• 4) FX Trader Call Takeaways
• 5) FX STRATEGY (JENKINS) – The NOK Oil Proposition

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