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Goldman Sachs

May 10, 2026

Mindcraft Theme Bookshelf

EquitiesRates CreditCommoditiesInformation TechnologyEnergy

Goldman Sachs' Mindcraft compilation explores the 'Agentic Economy' of AI, forecasting 120 quadrillion tokens/month by 2030, alongside emerging cycles in oil capex and global Medtech.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.AI token usage is forecasted to reach 120 quadrillion per month by 2030, a 24x increase from today, driven by enterprise agentic workflows.
  • 2.A structural oil capex upcycle is expected to begin in 2027, driven by declining reserve lives, plateauing shale production, and geopolitical tensions.
  • 3.The Robotaxi industry is projected to reach a $415bn global market by 2035, part of a broader $2 trillion AV industry revenue pool.

Table of Contents

  • Decoding the Agentic Economy: The coming inflection in AI usage and margins
  • AI Spend vs. Benefit: Marking our views to market
  • Top of Mind: Cracks in private credit
  • Optical Networking: The next mega trend in AI infrastructure
  • The Beginning of a New Oil Capex Upcycle: Back to the 2000s
  • Analyzing the Impact of AI on Profit Pools: A transportation case study
  • China Medtech Going Global: Assessing the opportunity for surgical robots
  • C-Suite Conversations: The value of "terminal value"
  • Also on our radar...
  • Audibles

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Authors

Jennifer CareyBrian Rooney

Securities

VK.PATGSISRG2252.HKEdge MedicalRoboTechnik

Themes

Agentic AI EconomyAI Infrastructure and Optical NetworkingOil Capex UpcycleAI Disruption of Terminal Value

Regions

GlobalNorth AmericaAsia PacificUnited StatesChina