Goldman Sachs
May 11, 2026
Midday Market Intelligence
Daily UpdateEquitiesMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsEnergyInformation Technology
US equities rose on Monday as gains in tech and energy sectors offset geopolitical risks. Persistent inflation concerns have led analysts to push back expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US markets are demonstrating resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, driven by optimism for an eventual ceasefire.
- 2.The 12-month US recession probability has been trimmed to 25% from 30%, though it remains above pre-war norms.
- 3.Core PCE inflation is expected to stay near 3% due to energy cost passthroughs and AI-driven demand measurement distortions, delaying Fed rate cuts.
Table of Contents
- wait, watch, repeat
- Chart of the Day
- What to watch for
- Today’s market performance - May 11, 2026, 2:38 PM
- Resource Corner
- MINDCRAFT
- Disclosure Appendix
- Disclosures
- Regulatory disclosures
- Ratings, coverage universe and related definitions
- General disclosures
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Authors
Chris HusseySarah HerrKshitij Garg
Securities
NVDASPXCCMP
Themes
Market ResilienceAI-Driven InvestmentInflation Persistence
Regions
North AmericaMiddle EastGlobalUnited StatesIran