MENA Chemicals: Recapping 1Q26 Trends and Updating Numbers

The report reviews 1Q26 earnings for MENA chemicals, highlighting how the Strait of Hormuz closure created operational winners and losers based on logistics flexibility. It adjusts sector estimates downward slightly while favoring fertilizer exposure and upgrading Yansab to Neutral.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Strait of Hormuz (SoH) closure has significantly disrupted supply chains and logistics, favoring companies with Red Sea/West Coast access or North African assets.
• 2.Fertilizer-exposed companies (Fertiglobe, SAFCO, Maaden) are preferred due to pricing resilience and more diversified asset footprints.
• 3.1Q26 margins generally beat expectations due to higher realized prices, but sales volumes were severely constrained by the SoH closure.

Table of Contents

• 1Q26 results recap
• 1Q26 insight: Elevated prices on rising disruptions shaping performance
• Asset location/operational shutdowns
• Feedstock availability & cost squeeze concerns
• Export routes and alternative logistics solutions
• Product outlook
• 1Q26 GCC chemicals earnings publications
• 2Q26 Preview
• Price target and estimate changes, valuations, and key risks

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