Goldman Sachs expects May nonfarm payrolls to rise by 60k, below the 85k consensus, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. The forecast is weighed down by a decline in government hiring and slowing alternative data indicators.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs estimates May nonfarm payrolls increased by 60k, which is below the market consensus of 85k.
- 2.The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% on a rounded basis, though there is a risk of it rounding up to 4.4% due to seasonality.
- 3.Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.4% month-over-month, driven by positive calendar effects.
Table of Contents
- Arguing for a stronger report
- Arguing for a weaker report
- Mixed/neutral factors
- The US Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Ronnie WalkerJessica Rindels
Themes
Labor Market DecelerationFederal Government Hiring Freeze
Regions
North AmericaUnited States